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The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft is taking shape midway through the 2024 season. Six teams have at least a 10% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, according to Football Power Index projections. from ESPN.
We called in our NFL Nation reporters to evaluate each of those lower-tier franchises after 10 weeks. How did each team lose control of their season? Are there any big changes coming in the offseason? Then NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid broke it down and suggested how each team could use the No. 1 pick. Which teams need a franchise quarterback? And what perspectives could adapt and meet a great need?
Let’s start with the Giants, who currently have the best odds at the first pick.
Jump to a team:
CAR | JAX | L.V.
NE | New York | TEN
FPI’s chance to get the number 1 pick: 16.9%
FPI’s chance to win the first five selections: 62.7%
Where has it gone wrong? There is plenty to choose from here. The Giants are last in the NFL with 15.4 points scored per game, they have given up the most yards per carry (5.3) and their special teams have been terrible. That covers a good part of the three phases. It’s hard to win that way.
Are there big changes on the horizon? All signs point to the Giants preparing to bench quarterback Daniel Jones. That will come sooner rather than later. As for general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll, owner John Mara has said they are safe and the team is committed to them. But will that hold if the Giants finish 4-13 and/or 0-9 at home? –Jordan Raanan
What could they do with the first choice? I like how Miami quarterback Cam Ward fits. With Jones unlikely to be a starter for the Giants next season (and perhaps not even with the team), New York will be searching for its new franchise signal-caller. Ward is an electric playmaker who can create and make every shot. Daboll could help him develop over time and limit his decision-making errors. -Reid
Schefter: I guess Daniel Jones played his last snap with the Giants
Adam Schefter predicts Daniel Jones may have played his last snap as a New York Giant.
FPI’s chance to get the number 1 pick: 16.2%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 64.1%
Where has it gone wrong? They started with seven different offensive line configurations in the first seven games, a result of the poor performance and failed evaluations of free agent signings Chukwuma Okorafor and Nick Leverett, and that contributed to the fourth-worst offense in that span. A group of less talented receivers also suffered, as did the losses of center David Andrews (shoulder), linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (torn pectoral muscle), safety Jabrill Peppers (commissioner’s exempt list) and defensive tackle Christian Barmore (blood clots). .
Are there big changes on the horizon? Nothing important. The biggest change came in Week 6 when rookie Drake Maye became the starter over Jacoby Brissett. Since then, he has raised the hopes of the organization with his play and leadership. –Mike Reiss
What could they do with the first choice? New England just drafted a quarterback (Maye) in April, so I’m considering Texas offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. as an option. Protection against Maye is possibly the weakest point of the squad. The Pats need multiple starters along the offensive line, and Banks would provide stability at tackle. He has the power and quick feet to protect Maye’s blindside. -Reid
FPI’s chance to get the number 1 pick: 15.4%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 59.2%
Where has it gone wrong? It’s a disaster. The defense is one of the worst units in the NFL (last in yards per game and 26th in scoring), and the offense can’t produce early in games. As a result, the Jaguars play from behind most of the time. Injuries have kept their best players out (most notably Christian Kirk), and Trevor Lawrence hasn’t improved his game. Now Lawrence will miss his second straight game on Sunday due to a shoulder injury.
Are there big changes on the horizon? Owner Shad Khan said this was the best Jaguars team ever assembled and was looking forward to the playoffs in 2024. So given the 2-8 record, coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke are definitely in the hot seat. A decision could be made as soon as they say goodbye next week on what happens next. Still, Khan has been patient in the past with big decisions. It may give them one more season to turn things around. –Michael DiRocco
What could they do with the first choice? The Jaguars could be at the top of the draft for the third time in five seasons. Quarterback is not an option for them after signing Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million extension. So how about Colorado receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter? Hunter, the top prospect on my draft board, would give the Jaguars a versatile option on both sides of the ball; They need help both as a receiver and as a cornerback. -Reid
FPI’s chance to get the number 1 pick: 13.8%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 54.2%
Where has it gone wrong? The Titans offensive line, specifically right tackle, has been a disaster. The lack of protection is evident in third-and-long situations, and the Titans cannot use developing routes because there is no time to complete them. They have scored 20 or more points only twice this season.
Are there big changes on the horizon? It does not seem that big changes are coming in the board of directors or in the coaching staff. Controlling owner Amy Adams Strunk made surprising moves by firing general manager Jon Robinson in 2022 and coach Mike Vrabel in January. Current general manager Ran Carthon and coach Brian Callahan appear to be safe for now. But don’t be surprised if the Titans hire a new special teams coordinator. And meanwhile, the jury is still out on quarterback Will Levis as the future starter. — Davenport Nougat
What could they do with the first choice? With Levis’ turnover issues and Mason Rudolph as a lifetime backup, the Titans are another team that would likely use the first pick on a franchise quarterback. All eyes will be on Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Ward. Sanders’ skill set would translate well to Callahan’s system due to his elite accuracy and decisiveness when guarded. -Reid
FPI’s chance to get the number 1 pick: 11.9%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 51.6%
Where has it gone wrong? There are few positives for the Silver and Black. The lack of a true No. 1 quarterback (Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder have all taken snaps) and the league’s worst rushing attack have already cost Luke Getsy his job as offensive coordinator, and things are not improving.
Are there big changes on the horizon? With Getsy, offensive line coach James Cregg and quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello fired, all eyes turn to Antonio Pierce. The head coach revitalized the organization as an interim last fall and earned the permanent job as a result. But if things continue to get worse, it wouldn’t be hard to imagine another total rebuild around a top draft pick. –Pablo Gutierrez
What could they do with the first choice? Sanders would help this team a lot. After two years of uneven play at quarterback and 10 weeks of back-and-forth among signal-callers, the Raiders are a strong contender to draft a quarterback in April. Remember, Las Vegas missed out on the top six guys in 2024, when they all left before the team was ranked 13th. Sanders fits right in; He has the poise, ball placement, and charisma that fit perfectly with this organization. -Reid
FPI’s chance to get the number 1 pick: 10.0%
FPI’s chance to earn a top-five pick: 57.1%
Where has it gone wrong? Poor early play from quarterback Bryce Young got the season off to a rough start, but the biggest problem has been injuries. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Derrick Brown suffered a season-ending injury in the first game. Then linebacker Shaq Thompson tore his Achilles tendon. Outside linebacker DJ Wonnum didn’t make his debut until last Sunday. A healthy defense would at least give Carolina a chance.
Are there big changes on the horizon? Second-round pick Jonathon Brooks should be ready after the bye week, but running back Chuba Hubbard is playing so well that the rookie may not get many looks. The looming question is whether Young, who has won two straight games, will keep the starting job or if Andy Dalton will get another chance at it. The future at quarterback remains the focus. –David Newton
What could they do with the first choice? Young has played better since being reinstated as a starter, and that will likely prevent the Panthers from drafting another signal-caller. The Panthers are still in the rebuilding phase and need to add young talent with high potential throughout. Hunter would be a fit, and Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham has impressive traits and plenty of upside. Pairing Graham with Brown would give the Panthers a rock-solid interior defensive front. -Reid
